With BAFTA and numerous guilds having held their yearly awards since the last time I updated my predictions a lot has changed. Yet many of the awards for the 86th Academy Awards remain up for grabs including the big one, Best Picture.
I really don’t know where to go with this one. 12 Years a Slave has won almost everything, but Gravity tied it at the PGAs (the most accurate predictor of the Best Picture category under its current form) and won the DGA (another accurate predictor of this category). I have a feeling that the “you need to see this” atmosphere around 12 Years a Slave will cause some voters to put it last on their ballet, and that will be the difference. However, this category really is going to come down to a handful of votes if that many.
BEST DIRECTOR=Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
BEST LEAD ACTOR=Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
BEST LEAD ACTRESS=Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR=Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS=Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
BAFTA really threw a wrench into this category as it looked like Nyong’o had this all locked up. Jennifer Lawrence is popular and respected enough to win Oscars in back-to-back years, and there is a very large chance that American Hustle wins either this category or Original Screenplay. I’m just not ready to predict her yet.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY=12 Years a Slave
Philomena is a surprise contender in all of its categories outside of Best Picture. Ultimately, I think 12 Years a Slave is just too big to be ignored here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY=Her
Just throw David O. Russell in for Jennifer Lawrence and it’s the same analysis for this category as Supporting Actress.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE=Frozen
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE=20 Feet From Stardom
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM=The Great Beauty
I think The Great Beauty is slowly pulling away with this one, but The Hunt and The Broken Circle Breakdown lurk as threats.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT=Get a Horse
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT=The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT=The Voorman Problem
BEST COSTUME DESIGN=The Great Gatsby
BEST FILM EDITING=Captain Phillips
It seems like no one wants to give Gravity this award after Captain Phillips won the ACE and Rush won the BAFTA. This also looks like the best place to reward Captain Phillips, which has done quite well for itself on the precursor circuit.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING=Dallas Buyers Club
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE=Gravity
Gravity won the BAFTA but Philomena still lurks as a threat.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG=”Let It Go”, Frozen
“The Moon Song” has faded but the teams behind “Happy” and “Ordinary Love” have gone all-out in their campaign to unseat “Let It Go” as the presumed frontrunner.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN=The Great Gatsby
Gatsby won the ADG and the BAFTA making it a big frontrunner. However, if 12 Years a Slave really catches on with the Academy this is one of the awards it will win.
BEST SOUND EDITING=Gravity
BEST SOUND MIXING=Gravity
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS=Gravity