When I did my first round of winner predictions for the 86th Academy Awards, I went with a Best Picture-Best Director split considering the shocking tie that took place at the PGA Awards between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. American Hustle also remained large as a Best Picture contender. Since then, though, a lot has changed. Gravity won the DGA making it the frontrunner (even if 12 Years a Slave is still very close), and American Hustle has faded quite drastically as films like Philomena have taken up the space not occupied by 12 Years a Slave and Gravity within the Oscar conversation. For now I’m going with Gravity in both Best Picture and Best Director. If 12 Years a Slave is going to get back into the frontrunner’s chair it’s going to have to win at the ACE Awards (the guild awards for editors takes place on 2/15 this year) or at the BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Academy Awards takes place on 2/16). It certainly is possible that 12 Years a Slave can win at either one of those, which just goes to show you how long of a race this is going to be.
As for other change I’ve made, I’m now predicting Her to win Best Original Screenplay. There is clearly a lot of affection for Spike Jonze within the industry and with three nominations I think it’s a good bet that he will win an Oscar this year. He could win for co-writing “The Moon Song” as the Best Original Song category is a lot more open than Frozen fans will have you believe, but for now I think he wins in Best Original Screenplay against the quickly fading American Hustle.
BEST DIRECTOR=Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
BEST LEAD ACTOR=Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
BEST LEAD ACTRESS=Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR=Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS=Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY=12 Years a Slave
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY=Her
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM=Frozen
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE=20 Feet From Stardom
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM=The Great Beauty
BEST ANIMATED SHORT=Get a Horse!
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT=The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT=The Voorman Problem
BEST COSTUME DESIGN=The Great Gatsby
BEST FILM EDITING=Gravity
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING=Dallas Buyers Club
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE=Gravity
BEST ORIGINAL SONG=”Let It Go”, Frozen
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN=12 Years a Slave
BEST SOUND EDITING=Gravity
BEST SOUND MIXING=Gravity
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS=Gravity