85th Academy Award Predictions: July Update

Despite it being a long way off from awards season, a lot has happened in the Oscar race since I last updated these predictions in May.  Beasts of the Southern Wild has really taken off with even more acclaim from Cannes, some solid Box Office business, and the support of Hollywood.  Now it doesn't seem so crazy to think it gets Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay nominations.  Also out of Cannes, Amour has picked up some major awards race momentum.  If it gets picked as France's entry for Best Foreign Film it is a lock in that category and has a really good chance at getting an Original Screenplay nomination.  Best Director isn't out of the question either for the film.  The final big winner out of Cannes was Moonrise Kingdom, which has since gone on to become a major box office success.  Suddenly it is in position to score multiple nominations.

Since May there have also been some trailers released for Oscar contenders.  The best of those were The Master (which appears to show Paul Thomas Anderson at the top of his game) and Les Miserables (which looks like top notch Oscar bait).  I think Les Miserables will end up falling into a similar fate as Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (a film that was considered a lock months out before disappointing upon release before finding a way to squeeze into Best Picture).

However, as many successes as there were in the last few months, there have been some disappointments.  While Brave was a good film, it was not the success critics hoped it would be and that will hurt it in the Oscar hunt.  Major nominations are out of the picture and the film will probably have to settle for just a lone Best Animated Feature nomination.  The other disappointment was Snow White and the Huntsman.  While never a real Oscar contender it looked to be in good shape for multiple technical nominations.  Now that it has been critically derided, Best Costume Design is the only category probably in the film's future.

Best Picture
-Argo
-Beasts of the Southern Wild
-Hyde Park on Hudson
-Les Miserables
-Lincoln
-The Master
-The Sessions
-Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
-Ben Affleck, Argo
-Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
-Roger Michell, Hyde Park on Hudson
-Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
-Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Lead Actor
-Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
-Clint Eastwood, Trouble With the Curve
-John Hawkes, The Sessions
-Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
-Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudsan

Best Lead Actress
-Helent Hunt, The Sessions
-Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
-Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook
-Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
-Quvenshane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actor
-Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
-Woody Harrelson, Seven Psychopaths
-Jude Law, Anna Karenina
-William H. Macy, The Sessions
-Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Best Supporting Actress
-Amy Adams, The Master
-Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
-Sally Field, Lincoln
-Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
-Kerry Washington, Django Unchained

Best Adapted Screenplay
-Anna Karenina
-Argo
-Beasts of the Southern Wild
-Lincoln
-The Silver Linings Playbook

Best Original Screenplay
-Amour
-The Master
-Moonrise Kingdom
-Seven Psychopaths
-The Sessions



Best Animated Film
-Brave
-Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted
-ParaNorman
-Rise of the Guardians
-Wreck-It-Ralph

Best Art Direction
-Anna Karenina
-The Great Gatsby
-The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
-Les Miserables
-Prometheus

Best Cinematography
-The Dark Knight Rises
-Django Unchained
-Life of Pi
-Lincoln
-To the Wonder

Best Costume Design
-Anna Karenina
-Dark Shadows
-The Great Gatsby
-Les Miserables
-Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Film Editing
-Argo
-The Dark Knight Rises
-Lincoln
-The Master
-Zero Dark Thirty

Best Makeup
-Dark Shadows
-The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
-Hyde Park on Hudson

Best Original Score
-Argo
-The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
-Lincoln
-Moonrise Kingdom
-Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Editing
-The Avengers
-The Dark Knight Rises
-The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
-Prometheus
-Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Mixing
-The Dark Knight Rises
-Django Unchained
-The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
-Les Miserables
-Zero Dark Thirty

Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus